Mammography activity in Norway 1983 to 2008

Background. In Norway, an organized screening mammography program, the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) started in four counties in 1996 and became nationwide in 2004. We collected data on pre-program screening activity, and in view of this activity we evaluated the potential impact of the program on breast cancer mortality in Norway. Methods. We searched data sources on mammography activity in Norway. Three data sources reported on examination activity, and two on self-reported examinations. We aimed at calculating annual number of women examined by mammography from 1983 to 2008, and coverage rate in program and non-program Norwegian counties. Results. The annual number of women examined increased from 5000 in 1983 to 110 000 in 1993 to reach its maximum of 131 000 in 2002, excluding program examinations. The annual number of women examined in the organized program increased from 1996 to a steady state about 190 000 in 2004. Prior to start of the organized program, 40% of women in target age groups reported to have had mammography examination. During the years 1996-2002, 64% of first participants in the organized program reported to have been examined previously. Assuming that the Norwegian program would in absence of prior screening have decreased breast cancer mortality by 25%, and that the activity in-and outside the organized program were equally effective, the measured effect of the organized program would under actual circumstances be a reduction of 11%. Conclusion. The example of Norway illustrates that although monitoring of screening outcome is highly warranted, this may be seriously jeopardized if use of mammography examinations was widespread prior to implementation of an organized program.