Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model

被引：121

作者：

Bacmeister, Julio T. ^{[1
]}

Reed, Kevin A. ^{[2
]}

Hannay, Cecile ^{[1
]}

Lawrence, Peter ^{[1
]}

Bates, Susan ^{[1
]}

Truesdale, John E. ^{[1
]}

Rosenbloom, Nan ^{[1
]}

Levy, Michael ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[2] SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2018年 / 146卷 / 3-4期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Tropical cyclones; Climate change; High-resolution; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; HURRICANE FREQUENCY; DYNAMICAL CORE; EL-NINO; SIMULATIONS;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.

引用

页码：547 / 560

页数：14

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