Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

被引:635
作者
Thackeray, Stephen J. [1 ]
Sparks, Timothy H. [2 ,17 ]
Frederiksen, Morten [3 ,4 ]
Burthe, Sarah [4 ]
Bacon, Philip J. [5 ]
Bell, James R. [6 ]
Botham, Marc S. [7 ]
Brereton, Tom M. [8 ]
Bright, Paul W. [9 ]
Carvalho, Laurence [4 ]
Clutton-Brock, Tim [10 ]
Dawson, Alistair [4 ]
Edwards, Martin [11 ]
Elliott, J. Malcolm [12 ]
Harrington, Richard [6 ]
Johns, David [11 ]
Jones, Ian D.
Jones, James T. [13 ]
Leech, David I. [14 ]
Roy, David B. [7 ]
Scott, W. Andy [1 ]
Smith, Matt [15 ]
Smithers, Richard J. [16 ]
Winfield, Ian J. [1 ]
Wanless, Sarah [4 ]
机构
[1] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England
[2] Poznan Univ Life Sci, Inst Zool, PL-60625 Poznan, Poland
[3] Aarhus Univ, NERI, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
[4] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol Edinburgh, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland
[5] Marine Scotland, Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry PH16 5LB, Perth, Scotland
[6] Rothamsted Res, Dept Plant & Invertebrate Ecol, Rothamsted Insect Survey, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England
[7] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol Wallingford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England
[8] Butterfly Conservat, Wareham BH20 5QP, Dorset, England
[9] Royal Holloway Univ London, Sch Biol Sci, Egham TW20 0EX, Surrey, England
[10] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
[11] Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, The Lab, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England
[12] Freshwater Biol Assoc, Ambleside LA22 0LP, Cumbria, England
[13] Peoples Trust Endangered Species, London SW8 4BG, England
[14] British Trust Ornithol, Thetford IP24 2PU, England
[15] Univ Worcester, Natl Pollen & Aerobiol Res Unit, Worcester WR2 6AJ, England
[16] Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincs, England
[17] Abbots Ripton, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol Monks Wood, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England
基金
英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会;
关键词
climate; linear mixed effects models; meta-analysis; phenology; traits; trophic mismatch; CLIMATE-CHANGE; RESPONSES; BUTTERFLIES; PLANT; SIZE; TIME;
D O I
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02165.x
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.
引用
收藏
页码:3304 / 3313
页数:10
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