An assessment of US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000

被引:14
作者
Pechmann, C [1 ]
Dixon, P
Layne, N
机构
[1] Univ Calif Irvine, Grad Sch Management, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
[2] Univ Georgia, Savannah River Ecol Lab, Aiken, SC USA
[3] Hlth Canada, Mkt Partnership Div, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L2, Canada
关键词
D O I
10.2105/AJPH.88.9.1362
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Objectives. This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable. The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15%: the Canadian goal is 24%. Methods. Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974-1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations. Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences, and the likelihood of goal attainment. Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends. Results. The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximately 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries. Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%. Conclusions. If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not. The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds, who already have low smoking prevalences. It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.
引用
收藏
页码:1362 / 1367
页数:6
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