The Second Phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill

被引：302

作者：

Koster, R. D. ^{[1
]}

Mahanama, S. P. P. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Yamada, T. J. ^{[1
,2
,4
]}

Balsamo, Gianpaolo ^{[5
]}

Berg, A. A. ^{[6
]}

Boisserie, M. ^{[7
,8
]}

Dirmeyer, P. A. ^{[9
]}

Doblas-Reyes, F. J. ^{[10
,11
]}

Drewitt, G. ^{[6
]}

Gordon, C. T. ^{[12
]}

Guo, Z. ^{[9
]}

Jeong, J. -H. ^{[13
]}

Lee, W. -S. ^{[14
]}

Li, Z. ^{[1
,3
]}

Luo, L. ^{[15
,16
]}

Malyshev, S. ^{[16
]}

Merryfield, W. J. ^{[14
]}

Seneviratne, S. I. ^{[17
]}

Stanelle, T. ^{[17
]}

van den Hurk, B. J. J. M. ^{[18
]}

Vitart, F. ^{[3
]}

Wood, E. F. ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] NASA GSFC, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[2] UMBC GEST, Baltimore, MD USA

[3] SAIC, Beltsville, MD USA

[4] Hokkaido Univ, Div Field Engn Environm, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan

[5] ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England

[6] Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada

[7] Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA

[8] Meteo France, Toulouse, France

[9] Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Steudies, Calverton, MD USA

[10] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats, Barcelona, Spain

[11] Inst Catala Ciencies Clima IC3, Barcelona, Spain

[12] NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ USA

[13] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden

[14] Environm Canada, CCCMA, Victoria, BC, Canada

[15] Michigan State Univ, Dept Geog, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[16] Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[17] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[18] KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY | 2011年 / 12卷 / 05期

关键词：

SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE; PART I; MINIMUM TEMPERATURES; AFRICAN MONSOONS; MODEL; IMPACT; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATION; FEEDBACK; WETNESS;

D O I：

10.1175/2011JHM1365.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The second phase of the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

引用

页码：805 / 822

页数：18

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