Establishment of predictive variables associated with testicular sperm retrieval in men with non-obstructive azoospermia

Although testicular biopsy for sperm extraction is a procedure with a potential for complications, sperm retrieval is successful in 30-70% of patients with non-obstructive azoospermia, In order to predict the probability of retrieving at least one testicular spermatozoon we conducted a prospective study of a set of variables in 40 patients with non-obstructive azoospermia, Using the receiver operating characteristic curves, we determined the probability estimates of testicular volume, plasma follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) concentration, Johnsen score and visualization of testicular spermatids in discriminating between patients with successful and failed testicular sperm extraction. Visualization of testicular spermatids provided the best estimate of success of testicular sperm extraction. Of the factors studied using logistic-regression analysis (age, maternal and paternal age at birth, body mass index, luteinizing hormone, testosterone, FSH, testicular volume, the presence of testicular spermatids and Johnsen score), only the presence of spermatids and Johnsen score were independent variables able to predict the success of testicular sperm extraction, The visualization of the presence of spermatids gave a correct prediction of 77% and Johnsen score of 71%, The diagnostic model derived from these independent predictors when validated in 40 patients using the Jackknife technique gave a correct overall prediction of 87%, The probability of successful testicular sperm extraction in patients with non-obstructive azoospermia could be objectively predicted on the basis of simple histopathological criteria represented by the visualization of testicular spermatids and Johnsen score.