Learning multiple evolutionary pathways from cross-sectional data

We introduce a mixture model of trees to describe evolutionary processes that are characterized by the ordered accumulation of permanent genetic changes. The basic building block of the model is a directed weighted tree that generates a probability distribution on the set of all patterns of genetic events. We present an EM-like algorithm for learning a mixture model of K trees and show how to determine K with a maximum likelihood approach. As a case study, we consider the accumulation of mutations in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase that are associated with drug resistance. The fitted model is statistically validated as a density estimator, and the stability of the model topology is analyzed. We obtain a generative probabilistic model for the development of drug resistance in HIV that agrees with biological knowledge. Further applications and extensions of the model are discussed.