Head-to-head comparison of two online nomograms for prostate biopsy outcome prediction

OBJECTIVE To compare the diagnostic accuracy of two previously validated prostate cancer risk predictors on biopsy. PATIENTS AND METHODS In total, 390 consecutive patients submitted to 10-core systematic transrectal prostate biopsy at our institution were included in this retrospective study. External validation of a European (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer derived Prostate Risk Indicator; SWOP-PRI) and a North American (Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Cancer Risk Calculator; PCPT-CRC) nomogram was performed. The predictive accuracy of these online available nomograms was calculated based on the area under the curve derived from receiver-operator characteristic curves and then compared using the DeLong method. RESULTS Both tools were confirmed to be superior to prostate-specific antigen alone. Moreover, the SWOP-PRI (77.9%) displays a 7.96% increase in the predictive accuracy compared to the PCPT-CRC (69.9%) in a statistically significant fashion (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS The results obtained in the present study confirm the utility of nomograms with respect to biopsy outcome prediction in patients with suspicion of prostate cancer. In the current sample of patients, the European-based nomogram appears to be more accurate than the North American nonogram, which lacks information regarding prostate volume and prostatic ultrasonographic lesions. To our knowledge, this is the first study to compare the accuracy of these popular risk calculators in a specific population.