Predictive Risk Analytics for Weather-Resilient Operation of Electric Power Systems

Day-to-day operation of the electricity grid generation, transmission, and distribution is environmentally driven and closely dependent on evolving weather patterns. This paper introduces several new weather-driven analytics for accurate spatial-temporal electricity generation forecasts, asset health and reliability assessment, probabilistic load forecasts, and electricity market simulations. A new risk metric is suggested, which accounts for the weather hazards, grid vulnerability, and financial consequences in the face of changing weather patterns and associated meteorological predictions over time. New mitigation formulations for power system topology control through transmission line switching for fast and timely recovery of the weather-caused electricity outages are suggested. The proposed decision support tool enables the operators to predictively evaluate the high-risk weather threats and consequently plan on how to safeguard the grid when exposed to forecasted weather-driven incidents. The efficiency of the proposed toolset is illustrated by application to a part of the IEEE 73-Bus test system.