Toenail nicotine levels as predictors of coronary heart disease among women

The authors assess the ability of toenail nicotine levels as a biomarker to predict incident coronary heart disease (CHD). A nested case-control study was carried out among 62,641 women aged 36-61 years in the Nurses' Health Study cohort who provided toenail clippings in 1982. Between 1984 and 1998, 905 incident CHD cases were diagnosed and matched with two controls by age and date of toenail collection. Using multivariate logistic regression analyses, the authors found a statistically significant dose-response association between increasing toenail nicotine levels and risk of CHD (p(trend) < 0.0001); women in the highest quintile had a relative risk of 3.44 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.56, 4.62) compared with women in the lowest quintile. With each increase in the log-transformed unit of continuous toenail nicotine levels, there was a 42% increase in the risk of CHD (relative risk = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.52). The association remained significant when the number of cigarettes smoked and passive smoking were included as covariates (relative risk = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.24). In conclusion, toenail nicotine levels are predictive of CHD among women independent of other risk factors and remained significant even after adjustment for history of cigarette smoking.