Spatio-temporal epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in two counties of Great Britain in 2001

The spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal features of the 2001 British foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in selected areas within the counties of Cumbria and Devon, which experienced the greatest incidence of disease, are described using hazard functions, extraction mapping and the space-time K-function. In Cumbria, the hazard of foot-and-mouth disease infection peaked at 2.8% in the week commencing 8 March 2001 and farm holdings in this area continued to be identified with disease to 12 September 2001. In contrast, peak infection hazard in Devon was 0.7% in the week commencing 15 March 2001 and eradication of the disease was achieved in this area by 31 May 2001. Persistence of the disease in Cumbria was consistent with: (1) many cattle holdings infected early in the epidemic (creating a high environmental viral load), and (2) a relatively large amount of medium-to-long-distance spread of the virus associated with seasonal farming activities-compounded to some extent by the movement of people and vehicles between disaggregated farm land parcels. The interaction of disease risk in Cumbria showed that premises remained infectious for longer throughout May, June and July, consistent with delays in disease detection during this period. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.