Who Takes Precautionary Action in the Face of the New H1N1 Influenza? Prediction of Who Collects a Free Hand Sanitizer Using a Health Behavior Model

Background: In order to fight the spread of the novel H1N1 influenza, health authorities worldwide called for a change in hygiene behavior. Within a longitudinal study, we examined who collected a free bottle of hand sanitizer towards the end of the first swine flu pandemic wave in December 2009. Methods: 629 participants took part in a longitudinal study assessing perceived likelihood and severity of an H1N1 infection, and H1N1 influenza related negative affect (i.e., feelings of threat, concern, and worry) at T1 (October 2009, week 43-44) and T2 (December 2009, week 51-52). Importantly, all participants received a voucher for a bottle of hand sanitizer at T2 which could be redeemed in a university office newly established for this occasion at T3 (ranging between 1-4 days after T2). Results: Both a sequential longitudinal model (M2) as well as a change score model (M3) showed that greater perceived likelihood and severity at T1 (M2) or changes in perceived likelihood and severity between T1 and T2 (M3) did not directly drive protective behavior (T3), but showed a significant indirect impact on behavior through H1N1 influenza related negative affect. Specifically, increases in perceived likelihood (beta = .12), severity (beta = .24) and their interaction (beta = .13) were associated with a more pronounced change in negative affect (M3). The more threatened, concerned and worried people felt (T2), the more likely they were to redeem the voucher at T3 (OR = 1.20). Conclusions: Affective components need to be considered in health behavior models. Perceived likelihood and severity of an influenza infection represent necessary but not sufficient self-referential knowledge for paving the way for preventive behaviors.