Simulation of a fire-sensitive ecological threshold: A case study of Ashe juniper on the Edwards plateau of Texas, USA

A model was developed to represent the establishment of a fire-sensitive woody species from seeds and subsequent survival and growth through five size classes. Simulations accurately represent structural changes associated with increased density and cover of the fire-sensitive Ashe jumper (Juniperus ashei, Buckholz) and provide substantial evidence for multiple steady states and ecological thresholds. Without fire, Ashe juniper increases and herbaceous biomass decreases at exponential rates until a dense-canopy woodland is formed after approximately 75 years. Maintenance of a grass-dominated community for 150 years requires cool-season fires at a return interval of less than 25 years. When initial cool-season fires are delayed or return intervals are increased, herbaceous biomass (fuel) decreases below a threshold and changes from grassland to woodland become irreversible. With warm-season fires, longer return intervals maintain grass dominance, and under extreme warm-season conditions even nearly closed-canopy stands can be opened with catastrophic wildfires.