Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism

被引：192

作者：

Thornton, D

Mann, R

Webster, S

Blud, L

Travers, R

Friendship, C

Erikson, M

机构：

[1] Sand Ridge Treatment Ctr, Mauston, WI 53948 USA

[2] Her Majestys Prison Serv, London SW1P 4LN, England

来源：

SEXUALLY COERCIVE BEHAVIOR: UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGEMENT | 2003年 / 989卷

关键词：

receiver prediction; sexual offender; sexual recidivism;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1749-6632.2003.tb07308.x

中图分类号：

B84 [心理学]; C [社会科学总论]; Q98 [人类学];

学科分类号：

03 ; 0303 ; 030303 ; 04 ; 0402 ;

摘要：

A two-dimensional risk assessment system for sexual offenders was created that can classify them for risk of sexual recidivism, risk of nonsexual violent recidivism, and the composite risk of reconviction for sexual or nonsexual assaults. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of separate follow-up samples were used for cross-validation. The system is easier to score than Static-99, and substantially easier to score than the VRAG or SORAG, while yielding comparable predictive accuracy in cross-validation samples with follow-ups from 2 years to 19 years. ROC AUC coefficients between .74 and .81 were found for the different scales and samples.

引用

页码：225 / 235

页数：11

共 18 条

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