Long-range correlations and trends in global climate models: Comparison with real data

被引：34

作者：

Govindan, RB ^{[1
]}

Vjushin, D

Brenner, S

Bunde, A

Havlin, S

Schellnhuber, HJ

机构：

[1] Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Geog, IL-52900 Ramat Gan, Israel

[2] Bar Ilan Univ, Minerva Ctr, IL-52900 Ramat Gan, Israel

[3] Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Phys, IL-52900 Ramat Gan, Israel

[4] Univ Giessen, Inst Theoret Phys 3, D-35392 Giessen, Germany

[5] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

来源：

PHYSICA A | 2001年 / 294卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

correlations; trends; climate models; DFA; scaling;

D O I：

10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00110-8

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

We study trends and temporal correlations in the monthly mean temperature data of Prague and Melbourne derived from four state-of-the-art general circulation models that are currently used in studies of anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere: GFDL-R15-a, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/ OPYC3 and HADCM3. In all models, the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean dynamics. We apply fluctuation analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis which can systematically overcome nonstationarities in the data, to evaluate the models according to their ability to reproduce the proper fluctuations and trends in the past and compare the results with the future prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：239 / 248

页数：10

共 26 条

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