The consequences of drop-outs on the cost-effectiveness of 16-19 colleges

The extent of non-retention on post compulsory full-time education courses mainly undertaken by students in the 16-19 age group has become recognised as relatively large. Not the least of the concerns surrounding this is the amount of resources devoted to enrolling on courses people who ultimately do not achieve any level of certificated outcome. In this paper we examine the extent of this problem for GCE Advanced Level courses in a number of colleges in the further education funded sector. By focusing on teaching groups we are available to derive a bottom-up approach to an examination of this resource issue both in absolute terms and implications for internal resource allocation. We identify prior achievements of enrolments as a major factor related to non-retention on courses. We also address the problem of students dropping out of full-time post-school education entirely and conclude that the phenomenon of enrolment loss is directly related to this problem. Reduced portfolios or switching of course patterns do not Seem to have much of a direct impact on resource expenditure. We draw some conclusions about the extent of the problem but also indicate that effective screening may lead to more efficient allocations.