An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.