Power System Capacity Expansion Under Higher Penetration of Renewables Considering Flexibility Constraints and Low Carbon Policies

被引:188
作者
Chen, Xinyu [1 ]
Lv, Jiajun [2 ]
McElroy, Michael B. [1 ]
Han, Xingning [3 ,4 ]
Nielsen, Chris P. [1 ]
Wen, Jinyu [5 ]
机构
[1] Harvard Univ, Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[2] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
[3] HUST, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
[4] State Grid Jiangsu Econ Res Inst, Nanjing 210000, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[5] HUST, Sch Elect & Elect Engn, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
关键词
Flexibility; long-term planning; variable renewables; carbon tax; renewable portfolio standards; energy storage; RESOURCE ASSESSMENT; ENERGY-STORAGE; ELECTRICITY; CHINA; OPTIMIZATION; IMPACT; WIND;
D O I
10.1109/TPWRS.2018.2827003
中图分类号
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号
080906 [电磁信息功能材料与结构]; 082806 [农业信息与电气工程];
摘要
Deploying high penetration of variable renewables represents a critical pathway for deep decarbonizing the power sector. The conflict between their temporal variability and limited system flexibility has been largely ignored currently at planning stage. Here, we present a novel capacity expansion model optimizing investment decisions and full-year, hourly power balances simultaneously, with considerations of storage technologies and policy constraints, such as carbon tax and renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Based on a computational efficient modeling formulation, all flexibility constrains (ramping, reserve, minimum output, minimal online/offline time) for the 8760-h duration are incorporated. The proposed model is applied to the northwestern grid of China to examine the optimal composition and distribution of power investments with a wide range of renewable targets. Results indicate that the cost can increase moderately toward 45% of RPS, when properly designing the generation portfolio: prioritizing wind investments, distributing renewable investments more evenly, and deploying more flexible midsize coal and gas units. Reaching higher penetrations of renewables is expensive and the reductions of storage costs are critically important for an affordable low-carbon future. RPS or carbon taxes to reach a same target of emission reduction in China will result in similar overall costs but different generation mixes.
引用
收藏
页码:6240 / 6253
页数:14
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