The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

被引:124
作者
Holland, Marika M. [1 ]
Serreze, Mark C. [2 ]
Stroeve, Julienne [2 ]
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
[2] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
关键词
Arctic sea ice; Climate change; Climate models; THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION; OCEAN;
D O I
10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions.
引用
收藏
页码:185 / 200
页数:16
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