Factors predictive of liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: a multivariate analysis in a longitudinal study

Objective and design Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection may lead to liver cirrhosis; however, factors associated with the development of cirrhosis have been incompletely studied. A total of 516 patients with chronic hepatitis B were followed up longitudinally to determine their outcome. Methods The clinical and pathological features were compared between those with and without cirrhosis occurrence, The risk factors were analysed, and the probability of the development of cirrhosis was estimated. Results During a mean follow-up period of 5.7 +/- 3.4 years (range 1-17 years), cirrhosis occurred in 71 patients, with a calculated annual incidence of 2.4%. Older age (> 45 years) at entry, male gender, persistent hepatitis (> 1.5-fold rise of serum alanine aminotransferase levels for at least one year) and diabetes mellitus were identified as independent risk factors of cirrhosis in a multivariate analysis (odds ratios 8.0, 19.3, 2.0 and 5.2, respectively; P values all < 0.05). A logistic regression equation was used to predict the probability of cirrhosis occurrence, which was as high as 76.6% when all risk factors were present. Acute exacerbation or super-infection by hepatitis C or D viruses were not significant predictors. Patients with subsequent cirrhosis had higher initial hepatic histological necro-inflammatory activities when compared to age- and sex-matched non-cirrhotic controls (Knodell's scores: 8.2 +/- 2.4 versus 6.0 +/- 4.1, P < 0.05). Conclusions Patients who were elderly, male, diabetic or had a history of persistent and histologically severe hepatitis were at increased risks of liver cirrhosis. Aggressive anti-viral therapy may be needed for these patients and they should be closely monitored for HBV-related late complications. (C) 2000 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.