Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

被引：103

作者：

Sutherland, William J. ^{[1
]}

Bailey, Mark J. ^{[2
]}

Bainbridge, Ian P. ^{[3
]}

Brereton, Tom ^{[4
]}

Dick, Jaimie T. A. ^{[5
]}

Drewitt, Joanna ^{[3
]}

Dulvy, Nicholas K. ^{[6
]}

Dusic, Nicholas R. ^{[7
]}

Freckleton, Robert P. ^{[8
]}

Gaston, Kevin J. ^{[8
]}

Gilder, Pam M. ^{[9
]}

Green, Rhys E. ^{[1
,10
]}

Heathwaite, A. Louise ^{[11
]}

Johnson, Sally M. ^{[12
]}

Macdonald, David W. ^{[13
]}

Mitchell, Roger ^{[14
,16
]}

Osborn, Daniel ^{[15
]}

Owen, Roger P.

Pretty, Jules ^{[17
]}

Prior, Stephanie V. ^{[1
]}

Prosser, Havard ^{[18
]}

Pullin, Andrew S. ^{[19
]}

Rose, Paul ^{[20
]}

Stott, Andrew ^{[21
]}

Tew, Tom ^{[22
]}

Thomas, Chris D. ^{[23
]}

Thompson, Des B. A. ^{[12
]}

Vickery, Juliet A. ^{[24
]}

Walker, Matt ^{[25
]}

Walmsley, Clive ^{[26
]}

Warrington, Stuart ^{[27
]}

Watkinson, Andrew R. ^{[28
,29
]}

Williams, Rich J. ^{[30
]}

Woodroffe, Rosie ^{[31
]}

Woodroof, Harry J. ^{[32
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Conservat Sci Grp, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England

[2] NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, CEH Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SR, England

[3] Scottish Govt, Rural & Environm Res & Anal Directorate, Edinburgh EH6 6QQ, Midlothian, Scotland

[4] Butterfly Conversat, Wareham BH20 5QP, Dorset, England

[5] Queens Univ Belfast, Sch Biol Sci, Med & Biol Ctr, Belfast BT9 7BL, Antrim, North Ireland

[6] Ctr Environm Fisheries & Aquaculture Sci, Lowestoft NR33 OHT, Suffolk, England

[7] British Ecol Soc, London SW15 2NU, England

[8] Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England

[9] Environm Agcy, Bristol BS32 4UD, Avon, England

[10] Royal Soc Protect Birds, Sandy SG19 2DL, Beds, England

[11] Univ Lancaster, Ctr Sustainable Water Management, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England

[12] Scottish Nat Heritage, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Midlothian, Scotland

[13] Univ Oxford, Wildlife Conservat Res Unit, Dept Zool, Abingdon OX13 5QL, Oxon, England

[14] Arcadia, London SW1X 9QX, England

[15] NERC, Sci Policy & Publ Sector Liaison, Swindon SN2 1EU, Wilts, England

[16] Scottish Environm Protect Agcy, Aberdeen AB11 9RD, Scotland

[17] Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England

[18] Welsh Assembly Govt, Cardiff CF10 3NQ, Wales

[19] Bangor Univ, Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Ctr Evidence Based Conversat, Bangor LL57 2UW, Gwynedd, Wales

[20] JNCC, Peterborough PE1 1JY, England

[21] Nat Environm Sci Div, Bristol BS1 6EB, Avon, England

[22] Nat England, Peterborough PE1 1UA, England

[23] Univ York, Dept Biol, Area 18, York YO10 5YW, N Yorkshire, England

[24] Nunnery, British Trust Ornithol, Thetford IP24 2PU, Norfolk, England

[25] New Scientist, London WC1X 8NS, England

[26] Countryside Council Wales, Bangor LL57 2DW, Gwynedd, Wales

[27] E England Reg Off, Bury St Edmunds IP33 3WD, Suffolk, England

[28] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[29] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[30] Microsoft Res Ltd, Cambridge CB3 0FB, England

[31] Zool Soc London, Inst Zool, London NW1 4RY, England

[32] Govt Off Sci, Horizon Scanning Ctr, London SW1E 6SW, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY | 2008年 / 45卷 / 03期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

conservation; conservation policy; decision making; environmental risk; nanotechnology;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. 2. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. 3. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. 4. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. 5. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. 6. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.

引用

页码：821 / 833

页数：13

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