Skillful predictions of decadal trends in global mean surface temperature

被引：36

作者：

Fyfe, J. C. ^{[1
]}

Merryfield, W. J. ^{[1
]}

Kharin, V. ^{[1
]}

Boer, G. J. ^{[1
]}

Lee, W. -S. ^{[1
]}

von Salzen, K. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Environm Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2011年 / 38卷

关键词：

DATA SET;

D O I：

10.1029/2011GL049508

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We compare observed decadal trends in global mean surface temperature with those predicted using a modelling system that encompasses observed initial condition information, externally forced response (due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors), and internally generated variability. We consider retrospective decadal forecasts for nine cases, initiated at five year intervals, with the first beginning in 1961 and the last in 2001. Forecast ensembles of size thirty are generated from differing but similar initial conditions. We concentrate on the trends that remain after removing the following natural signals in observations and hindcasts: dynamically induced atmospheric variability, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the effects of explosive volcanic eruptions. We show that ensemble mean errors in the decadal trend hindcasts are smaller than in a parallel set of uninitialized free running climate simulations. The ENSO signal, which is skillfully predicted out to a year or so, has little impact on our decadal trend predictions, and our modelling system possesses skill, independent of ENSO, in predicting decadal trends in globalmean surface temperature. Citation: Fyfe, J. C., W. J. Merryfield, V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W.-S. Lee, and K. von Salzen (2011), Skillful predictions of decadal trends in global mean surface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L22801, doi:10.1029/2011GL049508.

引用

页数：5

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