Dynamic models of subduction: Geophysical and geological evidence in the Tyrrhenian Sea

Predictions based on a 2-D finite-element model for subduction underneath the Calabrian Are in southern Italy are compared with a variety of geophysical and geological data, such as the present-day stress pattern within the slab, uplift from the elevation of marine terraces in Calabria and subsidence in the Tyrrhenian Marsili Basin from ODP Leg 107. We model the behaviour of the slab driven by slab pull, in agreement with the present tectonic style in this part of the Mediterranean as suggested by several investigators. The model accounts for the crustal, lithospheric and mantle structures in a vertical cross-section perpendicular to the Calabrian subduction zone. The shape of the slab is constrained on the basis of new tomographic images in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, which were obtained from the regional seismic stations of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, while the rheological properties of the mantle are taken from global dynamic models. Density contrasts between the subducted slab and the surrounding mantle, based on petrological models, drive the flow in our viscoelastic model; stress values, displacements and vertical velocities at the surface are sampled at different times after loading until dynamic equilibrium is reached. Our estimates are appropriate for a time window of 100 kyr; the validity of our comparison with the geological record is based on the assumption that the tectonic configuration in the past was not substantially different from that of the present day. Two families of models, with unlocked and locked subduction faults, are considered. The unlocked models allow for roll-back of the trench of about 20 mm yr(-1), in agreement with some geological estimates; the same family of models predicts uplift of the Calabrian Are of about 1 mm yr(-1) and subsidence in the Marsili Basin of 1-2 mm yr(-1), in agreement with geological surveys. The deviatoric stress obtained from the unlocked model is consistent with the continuous distribution of deep seismicity in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, with minor concentration within the lithospheric wedge. Locked models fail to reproduce these geophysical and geological observations. Predictions derived from a detached slab model are not consistent with the continuous hypocentral distribution of deep seismicity in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. Deformation at the surface and the stress patterns at depth for a detached slab differ substantially from those of a continuous plate: dynamic topography and horizontal motions are reduced, when compared with the continuous plate, with deviatoric stresses concentrated within the relict slab. Our results indicate that subduction is a major tectonic process in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea.