Life-expectancy projection by modelling and computer simulation (UKPDS 46)

被引：17

作者：

Stevens, R

Adler, A

Gray, A

Briggs, A

Holman, R

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Radcliffe Infirm, Diabet Trials Unit, Oxford Ctr Diabet Endocrinol & Metab, Oxford OX2 6HE, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Inst Hlth Sci, Hlth Econ Res Ctr, Oxford OX2 6HE, England

来源：

DIABETES RESEARCH AND CLINICAL PRACTICE | 2000年 / 50卷

基金：

英国医学研究理事会; 美国国家卫生研究院; 英国惠康基金;

关键词：

life expectancy; modelling; simulation; type; 2; diabetes; cost-effectiveness; UPKDS;

D O I：

10.1016/S0168-8227(00)00214-X

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

A method is described for estimating the life-expectancy of cohorts of type 2 diabetic patients, based on computer simulation from a parametric model. The method can be used where non-parametric methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimate, fail due to lack of the data. The simulation algorithm combines observed and modelled information to estimate the life-expectancy implications of event rates observed within a study. The use of bootstrap methods to estimate confidence intervals is discussed. The methods are illustrated with results that have been previously published, without derivation, in a health economic analysis of tight blood pressure (BP) control in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), and the application to other health economic analyses of UKPDS data is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：S5 / S13

页数：9

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