Pushing the limits in marine species distribution modelling: lessons from the land present challenges and opportunities

被引:385
作者
Robinson, L. M. [1 ,2 ]
Elith, J. [3 ]
Hobday, A. J. [2 ]
Pearson, R. G. [4 ,5 ]
Kendall, B. E. [1 ,6 ]
Possingham, H. P. [1 ]
Richardson, A. J. [1 ,7 ,8 ]
机构
[1] Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
[2] CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, Climate Adaptat Flagship, Hobart, Tas 7000, Australia
[3] Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia
[4] Amer Museum Nat Hist, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat, New York, NY 10024 USA
[5] Amer Museum Nat Hist, Dept Herpetol, New York, NY 10024 USA
[6] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[7] CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, Climate Adaptat Flagship, Cleveland, Qld 4163, Australia
[8] Univ Queensland, Ctr Applicat Nat Resource Math, Sch Math & Phys, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
来源
GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY | 2011年 / 20卷 / 06期
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
Aggregation; bioclimatic envelope model; competition; dispersal; ecological niche modelling; feeding; marine/terrestrial systems; ontogenetic shifts; prey; species distribution model; LONG-DISTANCE DISPERSAL; SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS; CORAL-REEF FISH; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION; BIOTIC INTERACTIONS; IMPROVE PREDICTION; ECOLOGICAL THEORY; SCALING PATTERNS; PROTECTED AREAS;
D O I
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00636.x
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071301 [植物生态学];
摘要
Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to address a wide range of theoretical and applied questions in the terrestrial realm, but marine-based applications remain relatively scarce. In this review, we consider how conceptual and practical issues associated with terrestrial SDMs apply to a range of marine organisms and highlight the challenges relevant to improving marine SDMs. Location We include studies from both marine and terrestrial systems that encompass many geographic locations around the globe. Methods We first performed a literature search and analysis of marine and terrestrial SDMs in ISI Web of Science to assess trends and applications. Using knowledge from terrestrial applications, we critically evaluate the application of SDMs in marine systems in the context of ecological factors (dispersal, species interactions, aggregation and ontogenetic shifts) and practical considerations (data quality, alternative modelling approaches and model validation) that facilitate or create difficulties for model application. Results The relative importance of ecological factors to be considered when applying SDMs varies among terrestrial and marine organisms. Correctly incorporating dispersal is frequently considered an important issue for terrestrial models, but because there is greater potential for dispersal in the ocean, it is often less of a concern in marine SDMs. By contrast, ontogenetic shifts and feeding have received little attention in terrestrial SDM applications, but these factors are important to many marine SDMs. Opportunities also exist for applying more advanced SDM approaches in the marine realm, including mechanistic ecophysiological models, where water balance and heat transfer equations are simpler for some marine organisms relative to their terrestrial counterparts. Main conclusions SDMs have generally been under-utilized in the marine realm relative to terrestrial applications. Correlative SDM methods should be tested on a range of marine organisms, and we suggest further development of methods that address ontogenetic shifts and feeding interactions. We anticipate developments in, and cross-fertilization between, coupled correlative and process-based SDMs, mechanistic eco-physiological SDMs, and spatial population dynamic models for climate change and species invasion applications in particular. Comparisons of the outputs of different model types will provide insight that is useful for improved spatial management of marine species.
引用
收藏
页码:789 / 802
页数:14
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