Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years

The relationship between climate change and water resources in the Tarim River was analyzed by combining the temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from 1957 to 2007 from the four headstreams of the Tarim River (Aksu, Hotan, Yarkant and Kaidu rivers) in the study area. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation and streamflow were studied using correlation analysis and partial correlations analysis. Holt double exponential smoothing was used to fit the trends between streamflow and the two climatic factors of Aksu River, Hotan River and Yarkant River. The streamflow of the main stream was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) modeling by the method of time series analysis. The results show that the temperature experienced a trend of monotonic rising. The precipitation and runoff of the four headstreams of the Tarim River increased, while the inflow to the headstreams increased and the inflow into the Tarim River decreased. Changes of temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on runoff into the four headstreams of the Tarim River: the precipitation had a positive impact on water flow in the Aksu River, Hotan River and Kaidu River, while the temperature had a positive impact on water flow in the Yarkant River. The results of Holt double exponential smoothing showed that the correlation between the independent variable and dependent variable was relatively close after the model was fitted to the headstreams, of which only the runoff and temperature values of Hotan River showed a significant negative correlation. The forecasts by the ARIMA model for 50 years of annual runoff at the Allar station followed the pattern of the measured data for the same years. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed a decreasing tendency in the Tarim River flow of 3.07% every ten years. The results showed that global warming accelerated the water recharge process of the headstreams. The special hydrological characteristics of the arid area determined the significant association between streamflow and the two climatic factors studied. Strong glacier retreat is likely to bring a series of flood disasters within the study area.