Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

被引:222
作者
Correia, Sergio [1 ]
Luck, Stephan [2 ]
Verner, Emil [3 ]
机构
[1] Fed Reserve Board, 20th St & Constitut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA
[2] Fed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA
[3] MIT, Sloan Sch Management, 100 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA
关键词
UNITED-STATES; SPANISH FLU; INFLUENZA; MORTALITY; EPIDEMIC; CITIES; SHOCKS;
D O I
10.1017/S0022050722000407
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
020101 [政治经济学];
摘要
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.
引用
收藏
页码:917 / 957
页数:41
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