One-year posttransplant renal function is a strong predictor of long-term kidney function: Results from the neoral-MOST observational study

Background. Peritransplant risk factors influence short-term and long-term graft survival, and 1-year serum creatinine is known to predict long-term graft survival. To examine interrelationships between risk factors, renal function at 1 year, and long-term graft function in patients maintained on cyclosporine, we analyzed data collected from 10,692 de novo or maintenance renal transplant recipients in an ongoing international, prospective, observational study-Neoral-MOST (Multinational Observational Study in renal Transplantation). The effect of donor age, delayed graft function, acute rejection, donor type, panel-reactive antibodies, and previous graft on 1- and 5-year renal function and their relationship to 1-year serum creatinine was assessed. Results. Donor age, delayed graft function, acute rejection, and donor type significantly increased the risk for serum creatinine > 130 mumol/L at 1 year posttransplant, and 1-year serum creatinine was the strongest predictor of 5-year renal function. After adjustment for 1-year serum creatinine, an ongoing influence was observed for donor age, donor type, and previous graft. Delayed graft function and acute rejection had a significant effect on serum creatinine at year 1 but no additional impact on long-term graft function. Conclusions. Serum creatinine at 1 year is influenced by risk factors known to affect overall graft survival and is predictive of 5-year renal graft function. The effects of delayed graft function and acute rejection appear to be limited to their influence on serum creatinine at 1 year, whereas donor type and previous graft predominantly affect later stages of graft life.