Equatorial circumnavigation of moisture signal associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter

In order to describe the connection from an event of MJO to the next in the boreal winter, the eastward propagation of MJO is studied, focusing on that over the western hemisphere. Propagation signal is identified by EEOF analysis, performed on the bandpass filtered OLR for the period of 1979-2000. Besides NOAA OLR, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface winds from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), precipitation observed from Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU), and reanalysis and operational analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are utilized for the composite. Positive TPW anomalies are found, synchronizing with tropospheric and surface zonal wind anomalies. They propagate eastward all around the equator in the boreal winter. They propagate at a speed of about 6 ms(-1), with a Kelvin-Rossby coupled mode structure in the eastern hemisphere, and at about 20 ms(-1) as an envelope of a radiating response in the western hemisphere. Within the envelope in the western hemisphere, faster propagating signals corresponding to 30-40 ms(-1) exist in the fields of TPW, zonal wind at 200 and 700 hPa, surface zonal wind. It is especially clear in the geopotential anomalies at 1000 hPa. This fast propagation speed of 30-40 ms(-1) is consistent with a first-baroclinic dry Kelvin wave mode recently rediscovered by Milliff and Madden (1996), and Bantzer and Wallace (1996). TPW increases under surface easterly anomalies along the equator. After the preceding TPW accumulation for 5-7.5 days, convective anomalies begin to occur as a part of the next cycle of the MJO from the eastern Atlantic to the western Indian Ocean. These results suggest a following conceptual model for propagations and event-to-event connections of MJO. Equatorial Kelvin wave generated by convection of the MJO propagates eastward emanating from a warm pool region at a faster speed (30-40 ms(-1)) in the western hemisphere. Elevated topography of the South American and African continent, blocks the wave propagation. After being blocked several days by topography, they continue to proceed. As a result, the signal propagates at 20 ms(-1) on average. Frictional convergence with lower easterlies of the dry Kelvin wave results in the associated propagation of TPW positive anomaly. Although it does not induce deep convections over large-scale subsidence regions, once it enters over the warm water in the western Indian Ocean, it helps to induce active convections for the next cycle of MJO.