An inventory of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the UK using the IPCC methodology: emission estimate, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Nitrous oxide emission from UK agriculture was estimated, using the IPCC default Values of all emission factors and parameters, to be 87 Gg N2O-N in both 1990 and 1995. This estimate was shown, however, to have an overall uncertainty of 62%. The largest component of the emission (54%) was from the direct (soil) sector. Two of the three emission factors applied within the soil sector, EF1 (direct emission from soil) and EF3(PRP) (emission from pasture range and paddock) were amongst the most influential on the total estimate, producing a +/- 31 and + 11% to -17% change in emissions, respectively, when varied through the IPCC range from the default value. The indirect sector (from leached N and deposited ammonia) contributed 29% of the total emission, and had the largest uncertainty (126%). The factors determining the fraction of N leached (Frac(LEACH)) and emissions from it (EF5), were the two most influential. These parameters are poorly specified and there is great potential to improve the emission estimate for this component. Use of mathematical models (NCYCLE and SUNDIAL) to predict Frac(LEACH) suggested that the IPCC default value for this parameter may be too high fol most situations in the UK. Comparison with other UK-derived inventories suggests that the IPCC methodology may overestimate emission. Although the IPCC approach includes additional components to the other inventories (most notably emission from indirect sources), estimates for the common components (i.e. fertiliser and animals), and emission factors used, are higher than those of other inventories. Whilst it is recognised that the IPCC approach is generalised in order to allow widespread applicability, sufficient data are available to specify at least two of the most influential parameters, i.e. EF1 and Frac(LEACH), more accurately, and so provide an improved estimate of nitrous oxide emissions from UK agriculture. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.