Neighborhood effects on family formation: Concentrated poverty and beyond

We use longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, in conjunction with decennial census data, to examine the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage on young women's risk of premarital child bearing and the timing of their transition to first marriage. Discrete-time even history models reveal that, among black women, neighborhood disadvantage has little impact on the risk of premarital childbearing, but has a significant nonlinear effect on the probability of marriage prior to first birth. Among white women, as neighborhood disadvantage increases, premarital childbearing rates rise nonlinearly, and marriage rates rise linearly. The nonlinear effects of neighborhood disadvantage on white women's premarital childbearing and black women's first prebirth marriage are generally consistent with arguments regarding the detrimental consequences of concentrated poverty, as opposed to merely high poverty. We find no evidence that the effects of individual socioeconomic status on these dimensions of family formation vary by neighborhood quality. And although white women's estimated rates of premarital childbearing may approach those of blacks in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods, socioeconomic differences between the neighborhoods inhabited by black women and white women explain only a modest proportion of the pronounced racial differences in premarital childbearing and the timing of first marriage.