Estimating economic effects of political movements in China

To measure the economic effects of political movements in China a simple econometric model is constructed. Investment is determined by a central planner maximizing a multiperiod objective function. Political events are modeled by exogenous changes in the shocks to productivity and to investment which affect the time paths of major economic variables. Effects of the events are measured by comparing the time paths generated by the model with and without the changes in the shocks. Without the Great Leap output and consumption per capita would have been 2.0 times as great in 1993, without the Cultural Revolution, 1.2 times as great. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.