Determinants of off-farm work and temporary migration in China

Existing research inadequately explains the factors that drive temporary internal migration in China. Using data for 2005 drawn from 1,903 households in 43 rural villages, we calculate binomial and multinomial logit (BL, MNL) models of probabilities that an adult belongs to one of three categories of worker-on-farm, off-farm, or temporary migrant-as a function of individual and household characteristics. We control for village fixed effects, paying close attention to male/female differences. Nearly all coefficients-even for village dummies-vary significantly by sex. For two variables-age and schooling-the relationships are non-linear. There is an optimal age and amount of schooling that maximizes the probability that a worker will be employed away from the family farm. For schooling, this is low, suggesting that educated workers are underemployed. This might indicate that schooling beyond primary grades is poor quality, or at least inappropriate for the job market.