Output Recovery After Financial Crises: An Empirical Study

In this paper, we provide a characterization of output recovery after financial crises. Using data from eighty-one countries (regions) from 1975 to 2008, we first identify 182 currency crises by a modified EMP method and recognize 131 banking crises using the results from literature. With quantitative U-shaped and V-shaped recovery specified, we depict output recovery over the dimensions of output loss and duration and find that emerging markets tend to experience severe crises with speedy recoveries. Finally, we apply survival analysis to study the duration of recovery. The results indicate that certain factors, such as control of private sector credit, the degree of financial openness, and adjustment of the current account deficit, contribute to a speedy recovery after financial crises.