Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

被引：15

作者：

Adrian, Tobias ^{[1
]}

Estrella, Arturo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Bank New York, Capital Markets Res Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA

来源：

ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2008年 / 99卷 / 02期

关键词：

monetary policy; interest rates; term structured discriminant analysis; logit;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econlet.2007.07.007

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not. Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页码：260 / 264

页数：5

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