Challenges in reservoir forecasting

The combination of geostatistics-based numerical geological models and finite difference flow simulation has improved our ability to predict reservoir performance. The main contribution of geostatistical modeling has been more realistic representations of reservoir heterogeneity. Our understanding of the physics of fluid flow in porous media is reasonably captured by flow simulators in common usage. Notwithstanding the increasing application and success of geostatistics and flow simulation there remain many important challenges in reservoir forecasting. This application has alerted geoscientists and physicists that geostatistical/flow models in many respects, are, engineering approximations to the real spatial distribution and real flow processes. This paper reviews current research directions and presents some new ideas of where research could be focused to improve our ability to model geological features, model flow processes, and, ultimately, improve reservoir performance predictions.