A central-limit-theorem-based approach for analyzing queue behavior in high-speed networks

In this paper, we study P(Q > x), the tail of the steady-state queue length distribution at a high-speed multiplexer. In particular, we focus on the case when the aggregate traffic to the multiplexer can be characterized by a stationary Gaussian process. We provide two asymptotic upper bounds for the tail probability and an asymptotic result that emphasizes the importance of the dominant time scale and the maximum variance. One of our bounds is in a single-exponential form and can be used to calculate an upper bound to the asymptotic constant. However, me show that this bound, being of a single-exponential form, may not accurately capture the tail probability. Our asymptotic result on the importance of the maximum variance and our extensive numerical study on a known lower bound motivate the development of our second asymptotic upper bound. This bound is expressed in terms of the maximum variance of a Gaussian process, and enables the accurate estimation of the tail probability over a wide range of queue lengths. We apply our results to Gaussian as well as multiplexed non-Gaussian input sources, and validate their performance via simulations. Wherever possible, we have conducted our simulation study using importance sampling in order to improve its reliability and to effectively capture rare events. Our analytical study is based on extreme value theory, and therefore different from the approaches using traditional Markovian and Large Deviations techniques.