Interventions on UK earnings and expenditures overseas

Intervention analysis is used to measure the impacts of terrorism, war, and the recent foot and mouth epidemic on the expenditures of tourists visiting the United Kingdom and UK tourists going abroad. Results show that the expenditure was robust to such acts in the 80s, rapidly returning to the norm after a crisis. It was less so in relation to the Gulf War, the foot and mouth epidemic, and the disaster of September 11. The latter events contributed significantly to the increasing magnitude and variability of the UKs deficit balance of payments from tourism. However, the scale of these impacts suggests that tourism may be more robust in the face of disaster than is usually thought.