Eutrophication model for Lake Washington (USA) Part II - model calibration and system dynamics analysis

We developed a complex eutrophication model to simulate the current chemical and biological properties of Lake Washington (USA). The model reproduces the key epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temporal patterns of the system and results in a good fit between simulated and observed monthly values. The relative error of model estimates was below 20% for most of the water quality parameters (phytoplankton, phosphate, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, dissolved oxygen). Discrepancies between simulated and observed ammonium levels were mainly due to the explicitly modeled egestion of excess nitrogen during zooplankton feeding. This indicates that the relation between secondary production and nutrient recycling has significant effects on the fractionation of the major elements (C, N and P) and regulates their distribution between the particulate/dissolved and inorganic/organic pools. The model was forced by 1962 nutrient loadings, when the lake received large quantities of treated wastewater treatment effluent, and accurately predicted the phytoplankton community responses (phytoplankton biomass and cyanobacteria dominance) and the nitrogen and phosphorus annual cycles for these conditions. We used Monte Carlo simulations to reproduce the meteorological forcing (air temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and subsequent river inflows) that in large part regulates phytoplankton interannual variability for the last 25 years in the lake. We found three seasonal components (modes of variability). The first component (January, May, November, December) is associated with the conditions that determine the abundance of the herbivorous cladocerans; the second component (June-September) coincides with the summer-stratified period, and the third component (February-April) is associated with the initiation and peak of the spring bloom. Finally, an illustrative application of two scenarios of nutrient loading increase at 25% of the 1962 levels indicated that both phytoplankton and cyanobacteria growth are likely to be stimulated. The three seasonal components still characterize phytoplankton dynamics, but changes in the relationships between summer phytoplankton/cyanobacteria biomass and total phosphorus/phosphate concentrations indicate the likelihood of structural shifts towards relaxation of the present phosphorus-limiting conditions and promotion of cyanobacteria dominance. Integration of the present eutrophication model with a hydrodynamic model with enhanced vertical resolution will allow more realistic predictions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.