Control of interannual and longer-term variability of stratospheric water vapor

被引:144
作者
Fueglistaler, S
Haynes, PH
机构
[1] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
[2] Univ Cambridge, Ctr Math Sci, Dept Appl Math & Theoret Phys, Cambridge CB3 0WA, England
关键词
D O I
10.1029/2005JD006019
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
[1] We use trajectory calculations based on 40-year European Reanalysis (ERA- 40) data to predict the water mixing ratio of air entering the stratosphere in the tropics ([H2O](e)) and thereby to examine interannual and longer-term changes. [H2O](e) is determined from the saturation mixing ratio of the coldest point during ascent from the troposphere to the stratosphere ( the Lagrangian cold point). These model predictions for the time variation of [H2O](e) agree very well with a broad range of measurements (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS)). During periods when measurements are consistent among various sensors and ERA- 40 temperatures show good agreement with radiosondes ( 1995 - 2002), the correlation between model predictions and HALOE water vapor anomalies in the tropical lower stratosphere is r = 0.81, as high as that between HALOE and SAGE II ( r = 0.8). The model predictions suggest that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and possibly volcanic eruptions all play a significant role in modulating [H2O](e), leading to interannual anomalies of order 0.5 ppmv with timescales of several months to years. Although the Lagrangian calculations show substantial interannual variability of transport pathways into the stratosphere, the results show that the interannual anomalies of [H2O](e) are dominated by anomalies of the zonal mean temperature rather than by transport changes or localized temperature anomalies. This reinforces the paradox of apparently increasing stratospheric water vapor concentrations alongside, if anything, slightly decreasing temperatures at the tropical tropopause. The combination of measurement uncertainties and relatively strong interannual variability with periods of several months to years, on the one hand, limits our ability to detect, attribute, and verify long-term trends and, on the other hand, raises the question as to whether the previously published estimates of long-term trends are too large.
引用
收藏
页码:1 / 14
页数:14
相关论文
共 56 条
[1]   The quasi-biennial oscillation [J].
Baldwin, MP ;
Gray, LJ ;
Dunkerton, TJ ;
Hamilton, K ;
Haynes, PH ;
Randel, WJ ;
Holton, JR ;
Alexander, MJ ;
Hirota, I ;
Horinouchi, T ;
Jones, DBA ;
Kinnersley, JS ;
Marquardt, C ;
Sato, K ;
Takahashi, M .
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, 2001, 39 (02) :179-229
[2]   GLOBAL TRACKING OF THE SO2 CLOUDS FROM THE JUNE, 1991 MOUNT-PINATUBO ERUPTIONS [J].
BLUTH, GJS ;
DOIRON, SD ;
SCHNETZLER, CC ;
KRUEGER, AJ ;
WALTER, LS .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 1992, 19 (02) :151-154
[3]   A trajectory-based study of the tropical tropopause region [J].
Bonazzola, M ;
Haynes, PH .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2004, 109 (D20) :D201121-23
[4]   INSITU EVIDENCE OF RAPID, VERTICAL, IRREVERSIBLE TRANSPORT OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE LOWER TROPICAL STRATOSPHERE BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TURRETS AND BY LARGER-SCALE UPWELLING IN TROPICAL CYCLONES [J].
DANIELSEN, EF .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 1993, 98 (D5) :8665-8681
[5]   Continuing decline in the growth rate of the atmospheric methane burden [J].
Dlugokencky, EJ ;
Masarie, KA ;
Lang, PM ;
Tans, PP .
NATURE, 1998, 393 (6684) :447-450
[6]   Response of the stratospheric temperatures and ozone to past and future increases in stratospheric humidity [J].
Dvortsov, VL ;
Solomon, S .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2001, 106 (D7) :7505-7514
[7]   CHANGES IN TROPOSPHERIC METHANE BETWEEN 1841 AND 1978 FROM A HIGH ACCUMULATION-RATE ANTARCTIC ICE CORE [J].
ETHERIDGE, DM ;
PEARMAN, GI ;
FRASER, PJ .
TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY, 1992, 44 (04) :282-294
[8]   Trends in stratospheric humidity and the sensitivity of ozone to these trends [J].
Evans, SJ ;
Toumi, R ;
Harries, JE ;
Chipperfield, MP ;
Russell, JM .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 1998, 103 (D8) :8715-8725
[9]   Assessing the climate impact of trends in stratospheric water vapor [J].
Forster, PMD ;
Shine, KP .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2002, 29 (06) :10-1
[10]   Stratospheric water vapor predicted from the Lagrangian temperature history of air entering the stratosphere in the tropics [J].
Fueglistaler, S ;
Bonazzola, M ;
Haynes, PH ;
Peter, T .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2005, 110 (D8) :1-10