Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

被引：383

作者：

Richardson, Andrew D. ^{[1
]}

Anderson, Ryan S. ^{[2
]}

Arain, M. Altaf ^{[3
]}

Barr, Alan G. ^{[4
]}

Bohrer, Gil ^{[5
]}

Chen, Guangsheng ^{[6
]}

Chen, Jing M. ^{[7
]}

Ciais, Philippe ^{[8
]}

Davis, Kenneth J. ^{[9
]}

Desai, Ankur R. ^{[10
]}

Dietze, Michael C. ^{[11
]}

Dragoni, Danilo ^{[12
]}

Garrity, Steven R. ^{[13
]}

Gough, Christopher M. ^{[14
]}

Grant, Robert ^{[15
]}

Hollinger, David Y. ^{[16
]}

Margolis, Hank A. ^{[17
]}

McCaughey, Harry ^{[18
]}

Migliavacca, Mirco ^{[19
]}

Monson, Russell K. ^{[20
,21
]}

Munger, J. William ^{[22
,23
]}

Poulter, Benjamin ^{[24
]}

Raczka, Brett M. ^{[9
]}

Ricciuto, Daniel M. ^{[25
]}

Sahoo, Alok K. ^{[26
]}

Schaefer, Kevin ^{[27
]}

Tian, Hanqin ^{[28
]}

Vargas, Rodrigo ^{[29
]}

Verbeeck, Hans ^{[30
]}

Xiao, Jingfeng ^{[31
]}

Xue, Yongkang ^{[32
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol, HUH, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[2] Univ Montana, Numer Terradynam Simulat Grp, Missoula, MT 59812 USA

[3] McMaster Univ, Sch Geog & Earth Sci, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada

[4] Environm Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada

[5] Ohio State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Geodet Sci, Columbus, OH 43210 USA

[6] Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Auburn, AL 36849 USA

[7] Univ Toronto, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada

[8] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climatet Environm LSCE, F-91190 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[9] Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[10] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[11] Univ Illinois, Dept Plant Biol, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

[12] Indiana Univ, Dept Geog, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA

[13] Ohio State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Columbus, OH 43210 USA

[14] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Dept Biol, Richmond, VA 23284 USA

[15] Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E3, Canada

[16] US Forest Serv, No Res Stn, USDA, Durham, NH 03824 USA

[17] Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Foret, Fac Forestry Geog & Geomat, Quebec City, PQ G1V 0A6, Canada

[18] Queens Univ, Dept Geog, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada

[19] European Commiss DG Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Climate Change & Air Qual Unit, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy

[20] Univ Colorado, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[21] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[22] Harvard Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[23] Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[24] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[25] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA

[26] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[27] Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[28] Auburn Univ, Int Ctr Climate & Global Change Res, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Auburn, AL 36849 USA

[29] Ctr Invest Cient & Educ Super Ensenada CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico

[30] Univ Ghent, Plant Ecol Lab, Fac Biosci Engn, Ghent, Belgium

[31] Univ New Hampshire, Complex Syst Res Ctr, Durham, NH 03824 USA

[32] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

来源：

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY | 2012年 / 18卷 / 02期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

autumn senescence; carbon cycle; land surface model (LSM); leaf area index (LAI); model error; North American Carbon Program (NACP); phenology; seasonal dynamics; spring onset; NET ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY; LEAF-AREA INDEX; DECIDUOUS FOREST; SPRING PHENOLOGY; HIGH-ELEVATION; WATER-VAPOR; CLIMATE; BOREAL; CO2; FLUXES;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02562.x

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis and other ecosystem processes, as well as competitive interactions and feedbacks to the climate system. We conducted an analysis to evaluate the representation of phenology, and the associated seasonality of ecosystem-scale CO2 exchange, in 14 models participating in the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Model predictions were evaluated using long-term measurements (emphasizing the period 20002006) from 10 forested sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada networks. In deciduous forests, almost all models consistently predicted that the growing season started earlier, and ended later, than was actually observed; biases of 2 weeks or more were typical. For these sites, most models were also unable to explain more than a small fraction of the observed interannual variability in phenological transition dates. Finally, for deciduous forests, misrepresentation of the seasonal cycle resulted in over-prediction of gross ecosystem photosynthesis by +160 145 g C m-2 yr-1 during the spring transition period and +75 +/- 130 g C m-2 yr-1 during the autumn transition period (13% and 8% annual productivity, respectively) compensating for the tendency of most models to under-predict the magnitude of peak summertime photosynthetic rates. Models did a better job of predicting the seasonality of CO2 exchange for evergreen forests. These results highlight the need for improved understanding of the environmental controls on vegetation phenology and incorporation of this knowledge into better phenological models. Existing models are unlikely to predict future responses of phenology to climate change accurately and therefore will misrepresent the seasonality and interannual variability of key biosphereatmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled global climate models.

引用

页码：566 / 584

页数：19

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