共 27 条
Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans
被引:131
作者:
Bahl, Justin
[1
,5
]
Nelson, Martha I.
[6
]
Chan, Kwok H.
[1
]
Chen, Rubing
[7
]
Vijaykrishna, Dhanasekaran
[1
,5
]
Halpin, Rebecca A.
[1
,8
]
Stockwell, Timothy B.
[8
]
Lin, Xudong
[8
]
Wentworth, David E.
[8
]
Ghedin, Elodie
[8
,9
]
Guan, Yi
[1
]
Peiris, J. S. Malik
[1
,4
]
Riley, Steven
[2
,3
,10
]
Rambaut, Andrew
[6
,11
]
Holmes, Edward C.
[6
,12
]
Smith, Gavin J. D.
[1
,5
]
机构:
[1] Univ Hong Kong, State Key Lab Emerging Infect Dis, Dept Microbiol, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Dept Community Med, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[4] Univ Hong Kong, Hong Kong Univ Pasteur Res Ctr, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[5] Duke Natl Univ Singapore, Grad Sch Med, Program Emerging Infect Dis, Lab Virus Evolut, Singapore 169857, Singapore
[6] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA
[7] Univ Texas Med Branch, Galveston, TX 77555 USA
[8] J Craig Venter Inst, Rockville, MD 20850 USA
[9] Univ Pittsburgh, Sch Med, Dept Computat & Syst Biol, Ctr Vaccine Res, Pittsburgh, PA 15261 USA
[10] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, Med Res Council,Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, London W2 1PG, England
[11] Univ Edinburgh, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, Midlothian, Scotland
[12] Penn State Univ, Dept Biol, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
来源:
基金:
美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词:
evolution;
molecular epidemiology;
source-sink;
phylogeography;
PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS;
EVOLUTION;
D O I:
10.1073/pnas.1109314108
中图分类号:
O [数理科学和化学];
P [天文学、地球科学];
Q [生物科学];
N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号:
07 ;
0710 ;
09 ;
摘要:
Populations of seasonal influenza virus experience strong annual bottlenecks that pose a considerable extinction risk. It has been suggested that an influenza source population located in tropical Southeast or East Asia seeds annual temperate epidemics. Here we investigate the seasonal dynamics and migration patterns of influenza A H3N2 virus by analysis of virus samples obtained from 2003 to 2006 from Australia, Europe, Japan, New York, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and newly sequenced viruses from Hong Kong. In contrast to annual temperate epidemics, relatively low levels of relative genetic diversity and no seasonal fluctuations characterized virus populations in tropical Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis using discrete temporal and spatial characters reveal high rates of viral migration between urban centers tested. Although the virus population that migrated between Southeast Asia and Hong Kong persisted through time, this was dependent on virus input from temperate regions and these tropical regions did not maintain a source for annual H3N2 influenza epidemics. We further show that multiple lineages may seed annual influenza epidemics, and that each region may function as a potential source population. We therefore propose that the global persistence of H3N2 influenza A virus is the result of a migrating metapopulation in which multiple different localities may seed seasonal epidemics in temperate regions in a given year. Such complex global migration dynamics may confound control efforts and contribute to the emergence and spread of antigenic variants and drug-resistant viruses.
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页码:19359 / 19364
页数:6
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