When is a change big enough to be a system shift? Small system-shifting changes in German and Finnish pension policies

In the wake of Esping-Andersen's and Pierson's landmark publications, comparative welfare state research has revolved around the retrenchment of social policy and the transformation of welfare state regimes. One of the chief problem of these studies is the treatment of time. Very often, changes are incremental and their real impacts are not immediately visible but take years or even decades before the consequences fully materialize The purpose of this paper is to discuss those incremental processes-that consist of series of smaller "not-system-shifting changes"-which may gradually change central features of a welfare state. Pension programmes, spanning long time periods, provide a good example. Only in some rare cases were pension schemes reformed in one step and in such a way that one can definitely ascertain a system shift Most changes, however, are gradual, and recurrently enacted minor adjustments seem to leave the basic principles of the scheme intact. In this paper pension reform policies in Germany and Finland will be used to answer the question of when a change is big enough to be labelled as a system shift. It is argued that small "not-system-shifting" changes of the last two decades will eventually alter the basic characteristics of old-age security in both countries.