Conflict-carrying capacity, political crisis, and reconstruction - A framework for the early warning of political system vulnerability

The early warning of protracted political violence needs firm empirical footing in dynamic indicators of the political processes leading to political crises. This study provides a conceptual framework for the analysis of conflict-carrying capacity (or CCC) defined as the ability of political systems to regulate intense internal conflicts. CCC is indexed by the multiplicative interaction between the proportions of civil contention, state repression, and violence. The PANDA Project (1983-1994) is used to illustrate the usefulness of this CCC index in capturing system stability in an institutionalized democracy (the United States), a bureaucratic-authoritarian regime (Mexico), an institutionalized Communist regime (China), and a peaceful democratic transition (Poland). It provides early warning signals of civil war (Algeria, Sri Lanka) and moves toward political stability (Peru). Civil contention and state repression are not destabilizing per se. Rather it is the simultaneous combination of these with violent contention that leads to internal political crises and, alternatively, to political stabilization.