Dynamic models for managing durables using a stratified approach: the case of Tunja, Colombia

In this paper, dynamic models for managing durables are applied for the first time to an urban region in developing countries, i.e., Tunja in Colombia. The focus lies on the analysis of the material balance of furniture, as an example, in private households. One of the major problems in calculating the material balances in regions in developing countries is the low availability of reliable data. The investigations lead to the following conclusions: (1) In developing countries, regional stocks and fluxes of durables can be described using a dynamic model based on a stratified approach. This allows for understanding the relevance of different social strata, i.e., the use of goods in form of cascades; identifying the parameters relevant for the system behavior; estimating a plausible development pattern. (2) The three behavioral parameters: (i) stock saturation and residence time of the goods; (ii) ratio of reused to new durables; and (iii) ratio of deposited to recycled material drive the development of the regional furniture balance. (3) To anticipate changes and problems in the management of durables in the region the potential changes of these behavioral parameters in each stratum have to be included in the analysis. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.