Attribution of global surface warming without dynamical models

Detection and attribution studies of observed surface temperature changes have served to consolidate our understanding of the climate system and its past and future behaviour. Most recent studies analysing up-to-date observations have relied on general circulation models (GCMs) to provide estimates of the responses to various external forcings. Here we revisit a methodology which instead estimates the responses using a simple model tuned directly to the observed record, paralleling a technique currently used with GCM output. The effects of greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulphate aerosols, and volcanic aerosols are all detected in the observed record, while the effects of solar irradiance are unclear. These results provide further observational constraints on past and future warming estimates consistent with those from recent studies with GCMs, supporting the notion that current estimates are robust against the modelling system used.