Predictors of normotension on withdrawal of antihypertensive drugs in elderly patients: prospective study in second Australian national blood pressure study cohort

Objectives To identify simple long term predictors of maintenance of normotension after withdrawal of antihypertensive drugs in elderly patients in general practice. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting 169 general practices in Victoria, Australia. Participants 503 patients aged 65-84 with treated hypertension who were withdrawn from all antihypertensive drugs and remained drug free and normotensive for an initial two week period; all were followed for a further 12 months. Main outcome measures Relative likelihood of maintaining normotension 12 months after drug withdrawal; relative likelihood of early return to hypertension after drug withdrawal. Results The likelihood of remaining normotensive at 12 months was greater among younger patients (65-74 years), patients with lower "on-treatment" systolic blood pressure, patients on single agent treatment, and patients with a greater waist:hip ratio. The likelihood of return to hypertension was greatest for patients with higher "on-treatment" systolic blood pressure. Conclusions Age, blood pressure control, and the number of antihypertensive drugs are important factors in the clinical decision to withdraw drug treatment. Because of consistent rates of return to antihypertensive treatment, all patients from whom such treatment is withdrawn should be monitored indefinitely to detect a recurrence of hypertension.