Growth Characteristics and Development of a Predictive Model for Bacillus cereus in Fresh Wet Noodles with Added Ethanol and Thiamine

Response surface methodology was used to determine growth characteristics and to develop a predictive model to describe specific growth rates of Bacillus cereus in wet noodles containing a combination of ethanol (0 to 2% [vol/wt]) and vitamin B-1 (0 to 2 g/liter). B. cereus F4810/72, which produces an emetic toxin, was used in this study. The noodles containing B. cereus were incubated at 10 degrees C. The growth curves were fitted to the modified Gompertz equation using nonlinear regression, and the growth rate values from the curves were used to establish the predictive model using a response surface methodology quadratic polynomial equation as a function of concentrations of ethanol and vitamin B-1. The model was shown to fit the data very well (r(2) = 0.9505 to 0.9991) and could be used to accurately predict growth rates. The quadratic polynomial model was validated, and the predicted growth rate values were in good agreement with the experimental values. The polynomial model was found to be an appropriate secondary model for growth rate (OR) and lag time (LT) based on the correlation of determination (r(2) = 0.9899 for OR, 0.9782 for LT), bias factor (B-f = 1.006 for OR, 0.992 for LT), and accuracy factor (A(f) = 1.024 for OR, 1.011 for LT). Thus, this model holds great promise for use in predicting the growth of B. cereus in fresh wet noodles using only the bacterial concentration, an important contribution to the manufacturing of safe products.