Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models

被引:479
作者
Bonan, Gordon B. [1 ]
Doney, Scott C. [2 ]
机构
[1] NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[2] Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 美国食品与农业研究所;
关键词
MOUNTAIN PINE-BEETLE; LAND-USE; 21ST-CENTURY PROJECTIONS; BIOGEOCHEMISTRY MODELS; OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS; CHANGE IMPACTS; GLOBAL CARBON; DRIVERS; UNCERTAINTIES; EMERGENCE;
D O I
10.1126/science.aam8328
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];
摘要
Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources.
引用
收藏
页码:533 / +
页数:10
相关论文
共 115 条
[1]
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests [J].
Allen, Craig D. ;
Macalady, Alison K. ;
Chenchouni, Haroun ;
Bachelet, Dominique ;
McDowell, Nate ;
Vennetier, Michel ;
Kitzberger, Thomas ;
Rigling, Andreas ;
Breshears, David D. ;
Hogg, E. H. ;
Gonzalez, Patrick ;
Fensham, Rod ;
Zhang, Zhen ;
Castro, Jorge ;
Demidova, Natalia ;
Lim, Jong-Hwan ;
Allard, Gillian ;
Running, Steven W. ;
Semerci, Akkin ;
Cobb, Neil .
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2010, 259 (04) :660-684
[2]
Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities [J].
Anderson, G. Brooke ;
Oleson, Keith W. ;
Jones, Bryan ;
Peng, Roger D. .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2018, 146 (3-4) :455-470
[3]
[Anonymous], 2015, CLIM INT CARB DIOX R
[4]
[Barros V.R. IPCC. IPCC.], 2014, CONTRIBUTION WORKING, DOI DOI 10.1017/CBO9781107415386.001
[5]
Bonan G.B.:., 2016, ECOLOGICAL CLIMATOLO, V3rd, DOI DOI 10.1017/CBO9781107339200
[6]
Forests, Climate, and Public Policy: A 500-Year Interdisciplinary Odyssey [J].
Bonan, Gordon B. .
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND SYSTEMATICS, VOL 47, 2016, 47 :97-121
[7]
Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models [J].
Bopp, L. ;
Resplandy, L. ;
Orr, J. C. ;
Doney, S. C. ;
Dunne, J. P. ;
Gehlen, M. ;
Halloran, P. ;
Heinze, C. ;
Ilyina, T. ;
Seferian, R. ;
Tjiputra, J. ;
Vichi, M. .
BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2013, 10 (10) :6225-6245
[8]
Effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on biogeochemical and biogeophysical MODIS products [J].
Bright, Benjamin C. ;
Hicke, Jeffrey A. ;
Meddens, Arjan J. H. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2013, 118 (03) :974-982
[9]
Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology [J].
Buitenwerf, Robert ;
Rose, Laura ;
Higgins, Steven I. .
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2015, 5 (04) :364-368
[10]
Climate Change Influences on Marine Infectious Diseases: Implications for Management and Society [J].
Burge, Colleen A. ;
Eakin, C. Mark ;
Friedman, Carolyn S. ;
Froelich, Brett ;
Hershberger, Paul K. ;
Hofmann, Eileen E. ;
Petes, Laura E. ;
Prager, Katherine C. ;
Weil, Ernesto ;
Willis, Bette L. ;
Ford, Susan E. ;
Harvell, C. Drew .
ANNUAL REVIEW OF MARINE SCIENCE, VOL 6, 2014, 6 :249-277