Moisture Transport into Midlatitudes ahead of Recurving Tropical Cyclones and Its Relevance in Two Predecessor Rain Events

被引：45

作者：

Schumacher, Russ S. ^{[1
,2
]}

Galarneau, Thomas J., Jr. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[2] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX USA

[3] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

来源：

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW | 2012年 / 140卷 / 06期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SENSITIVITY; IKE;

D O I：

10.1175/MWR-D-11-00307.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Global ensemble forecasts from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) are used to quantify the magnitude of moisture transport into North America ahead of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). Two cases in which a predecessor rain event (PRE) occurred ahead of the recurving TC-Erin (2007) and Ike (2008)-are analyzed, with ensemble members correctly predicting TC recurvature contrasted from those predicting the TC to weaken or turn southward. This analysis demonstrates that it-related moisture transport can increase the total water vapor in the atmosphere over North America by 20 mm or more, and that the moisture transport takes place both in the boundary layer and aloft. The increased moisture does not always correspond to increased rainfall in the ensemble forecasts, however, as the location and strength of baroclinic zones and their attendant secondary circulations that can lift this moist air are also crucial to the development of heavy rains.

引用

页码：1810 / 1827

页数：18

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